Monday, March 31, 2008

REDC Breakdown

Real Estate Disposition Corporation (REDC) sells real estate assets through the utilization of the auction marketing process. On April 12 in Del Mar over 200 properties (mostly foreclosures) will be auctioned off to the highest bidder.

You might be wondering if you can get in a home cheap? Let's take a closer look:

This property was sold new for $734,500 in Feb 2005. It is currently owned by Countrywide Bank and was sold at auction in Jan 2007 for $540,454.63 and was recently listed for on the MLS for $549,900 as of 1/30/2008.

With no buyer insight Countywide has turned to REDC to sell this property at auction.

How much is it worth?

There are currently 4 properties in near proximity that are currently being listed:

1090 MOUNT WHITNEY RD, 2950 sq ft, 5Br, 3Ba for $514,900

1069 MOUNT WHITNEY RD, 2860 sq ft, 5Br, 3Ba for $525,000

1074 MOUNT WHITNEY RD, 2860 sq ft, 5Br, 3Ba for $494,780

1445 AUTUMN HILLS DR, 2950 sq ft, 5Br, 3Ba for $450,000

So that about $170 /per sq ft on average or $457,000 for the house.

So just because the starting bid is $249,000 I would venture to say that Countrywide will not accept more than a 100K hit on this home. IMHO, I would venture that Countrywide will happily dump this money pit off their books for $450-475K.

Saturday, June 23, 2007

New Website

Please join me at my new website:


Monday, May 07, 2007

Distrubing Data from CAR

I am not a supporter of CAR, however even they can no longer deny the stench this market is emitting. Existing home sales are down more than 20% from last year even though interest rates are almost the same. This points to tightening lending standards and an increase in buyer IQs.
The median price is up (which I question), but this may be an indicator that sellers (want to go down with there ship) are stubborn in decreasing their asking price.
Nonetheless, we are heading for a train crash, both buyers and sellers are not moving from there positions, but I am betting that the greed of the sellers will get the best of them.
Stay tuned.......

Sunday, May 06, 2007

1515 LOKOYA DR, Chula Vista
List Price: $610,000 - $610,000

I don't think that this flipper thought his capital gains break (after 2 years) would be a huge capital loss of about a $140K. I'm sure you had someone telling you not to buy in '05, but you didn't listen, and thats why you are in my blog.

What, a $270K loss in Carmel Valley?....Are you sure?

13506 MOONFLOWER MEADOWS TRL, SD - Carmel Valley
List Price: $620,000 - $670,000

Yes, the mighty have fallen! Even Carmel Valley is not immune to stupidity and hast. Do you think that this seller considered that hefty $10,600 tax burden associated with this house?
Live and learn my friend.........

727 Kirkwall Dr. San Marcos, List Price: $520,000

Where do we start here? This seller is already taking over a $150K loss on this home (if he gets lucky), yet I have yet to see why this is a good deal.
At $520K the taxes and HOA add up to about $700 per month.
Put 20% down on this house and your mortgage payment is $2,500.
So thats $3,200 a month with no utility bills, no landscaping, no home get the point.
The lenders, the state, the flippers and the builders are all making money off stupid people who purchased homes in the last 5 -years.
Hold off your purchase another year or two and you will be rewarded!

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Slippery Slope in SD County

Latest data is definately pointing towards a downward trend in the county, however some areas have been hit harder than others. New SFR and condos prices in North County have dropped at least 25% from last year. This will spread all over the county and eventually to Orange, LA and Ventura Counties, just like the late 1980's and early 1990's.

$100K+ loss in Carlsbad

3580 Gorge Pl
Carlsbad, CA 92010

Facing a potential $100K + loss in 20 months is only fair when you are foolish enough to buy at the top of the market but rest assured you will not be the only one.

A flippers worst nightmare.....$500K Loss

3026 Don Rolando
Escondido, CA 92025

$500K hit in 14 months, enough said. Let this be a lesson to you greedy flippers still holding on for a miracle.

Sunday, April 08, 2007

Point Loma Flipper Asking for the World

2841 E Bainbridge Rd, Point Loma

This flipper is looking for some sucker to take this townhouse-looking POS off his hands and make him a potential $500K profit in 3 years.
I would not pay anything over 650K for this house. This flipper is in for a long drop down. But thats OK I like watching fools get calibrated the hard way.

Mira Mesa Flipper Facing $110K Loss


This beauty was purchased in 2005 for $560K, it is currently listed for $489K and has been listed for 96 days. At, 1855 sq ft it is listed for $264 per sq ft. IMHO a $180-200 per sq ft is more than fair. That would put this home at $334K to $371K.

Purchased in 1989 for $165K at 3% inflation through 2007 would price this home at $281K. Facing a potential $110K loss this flipper is looking at bigger losses down the road if he holds on to yesterday.


Sunday, April 01, 2007

Is $579K in Penasquitos a good deal?

With an asking price of $579K this may be tempting in todays market, but when you disect the numbers and plot the history of this home, you quickly find out the next buyer (even at $579K) will be in for a rude surprise.
From 1988 to 1997 the rate of appreciation was about 3% per year, which is on pace with inflation. From 1997 to 2007 the rate of appreciation was about 18% per year. Not only is it unjustified it quite criminal.
That $175K home in 1988 with 3% inflation per year should be worth about $310K today, which looking at the house is quite reasonable.
Your Thoughts?