Saturday, October 07, 2006

Oceanside Market Corroding for this Flipper

This home has been flipped more than than a low-rider cutting you off on the 805. Originally purchased on 3/03/2003 for $462,000, the orginal flipper made a quick get-a-way by unloading this box for $750,000 on 9/1/2005. Wow! The latest flipper put the house on the market 10 months later on 7/31/2006 for $755,000, hoping to salvage what is turning out to be a complete disaster. On the market now for over 2 months this flipper has reduced his asking price to $649,000-$695,000. Even if he sells it at $695K. asumming 6% for commisson fees and closing costs he is already in the hole 100K in just 1 year.
People, people, and learn. This is why this blog exists.

Friday, October 06, 2006

Flipper vs Flipper in Point Loma


Intially purchased on 6/3/ 2004 for $658,500 this flipper put his home for sale on 2/27/06 for $995,000. Yes, that is about a $340K profit in 20 months. The home is still on the market however, it is now priced for $799,900-$829,900.


Intially purchased on 5/27/ 2004 for $688,000 this flipper put his home for sale on 3/14/06 for $1,050,000. Yes, that is about a $360K profit in 22 months. The home is still on the market however, it is now priced for $900,000-$1,000,876.

These two flippers are in a fierce fight to find the next dummy to try to dump their properties on. They figured that they would list their homes in Spring and make quick sales by the Summer to get their tax exemption. Not gonna happen, not now, not tomorrow. Try reducing your asking price to $450K-550k.

Spotlight Realtor: Dave Harlan

San Diego County Market Conditions

Dave Harlan, Realtor North County: 10/5/2006

San Marcos Market Condition:

"Here are some revealing statistics. San Marcos had 760 homes on the market this morning but only 60 homes sold in the last 30 days. This means about 9 out of 10 homes didn't sell. Wow! Where are all the buyers? "

Vista Market Condition:

"Here are some revealing statistics. Vista had 587 homes on the market this morning but only 62 homes sold in the last 30 days. This means about 9 out of 10 homes didn't sell. Wow! Where are all the buyers? "
Oceanside Market Condition:

"Here are some revealing statistics. Oceanside had 1470 homes on the market this morning but only 123 homes sold in the last 30 days. This means about 9 out of 10 homes didn't sell. Wow! Where are all the buyers? "

Escondido Market Condition:

"Here are some revealing statistics. Escondido had 1236 homes on the market this morning but only 115 homes sold in the last 30 days. This means about 9 out of 10 homes didn't sell. Wow! Where are all the buyers?"
So where are all the buyers Dave? There right here waiting for the greed and the foolishness to subside.

Thursday, October 05, 2006

**Flipper Alert**Flipper Alert**Flipper Alert**


This flipper purchased this home on 12/16/2005 for $682,990. He listed it for sale on 5/15/2006 (6 months later) for $849,000. One hundred forty three days later the price has been reduced to $769,000-$799,000.

It is amazing how these flippers operate. Did he really think in today's market you can swindle your way to a quick profit? Now he has his neighbors excited, watching every price reduction he make.

Stop this nonsense. In my opinion this house should sell for no more than $450K today and $375K by next summer and $325K by next Fall. Clock is ticking.

By the way, you're neighbors seem to have a nice view of your backyard, frontyard, bedrooms, kitchen.....ahh so much for privacy.

Short Sales Galore!

Flippers are in a world of trouble, rising interest rates, tighter lending standards, smarter buyers have these greedy people heading down a slippery slope........


Realtor: "SHORT SALE-Pre Foreclosure Upon BANK Approval! This homes sits in the ever so popular area in Bonita on COUNRTY VISTAS LANE, surrounded by million dollare homes.This property requires some updating and has been very well maintained.A little TLC on this home is all it requires! "

The price: $700K!...........Lady Please. For $700K the house better be in tip-top condition with 5 acres of land, a barn and 10 horses, otherwise, I'll submit an offer to the auctioneer for $250K.

822-824 N. 42ND. SAN DIEGO

Realtor: "GREAT OPPORTUNITY, SHORT SALE, Subject to Lender approval. Pride of Owner, homes have been remodel through out. Homes are well groom in and out. Detach 2 car garage with plenty of parking space around. GO SHOW!! "

The price: $470K........All that missing in this house is a bench press and a bunch of free weights in the front yard. I would pay $470K-350K( The cost it would take to take your girlfriend out for dinner for the next 30 years so she won't see what a dump you live in.) = $120K.

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

S.D. home price fall predicted at 8.5%

Finally, somebody willing to admit the obvious!

Moody's foresees a third of cities hit

October 4, 2006

With home sales slowing and inventories of unsold homes rising, a new report predicts that housing prices will fall in about a third of the metropolitan areas in the United States, including San Diego. But the forecast by Moody's, a private research firm, doesn't predict a crash in housing prices in a vast majority of the nation's cities, including San Diego.

The report, released yesterday, projects prices for new and resale single-family homes to drop 8.5 percent in San Diego from the market peak at the end of 2005 to the first half of 2008, when the market is predicted to hit bottom.

Prices have already declined locally in the first and second quarters of this year, said Brian Carey, an economist with who worked on the report.
Sellers, particularly new-home developers, have been cutting prices as homes have lingered on the market and buyer demand has slowed. “They do have a lot of excess supply right now,” Carey said of San Diego.

The region, however, wasn't among the cities where prices are forecast to decline the most. It ranked 37th in the report. Danville, Ill., was projected to see the biggest percentage drop in home prices at 18.7 percent. It was followed by Fort Myers, Fla.; Reno, Nev.; Merced and Stockton.

Condos were excluded from's forecast because it lacked good data, Carey said.
In areas like San Diego, however, condos may be more vulnerable than single-family homes to steep price declines because of the unprecedented construction of new units downtown and elsewhere, as well as a glut of condo conversions either for sale today or planned in the near future.

“We realize the condo market could be hit harder,” Carey said.
Nathan Moeder, an analyst with San Diego real estate consultant The London Group, said it's not surprising that home prices would be falling now that buyers are being cautious.
But he doubted that any forecast could accurately predict how much prices might drop. That's because it's difficult to say what the future holds for interest rates, job growth and other factors that contribute to housing demand.

“We've already seen adjustments by developers, not only with incentives but also price decreases because they have to sell their units,” said Moeder. “But is it going to drop zero or 10 percent? Who knows? Moeder added that if is correct, an 8.5 percent decline would not be significant for most homeowners given the sky-high appreciation in San Diego since 2000.

The median home value for San Diego homes, adjusted for inflation, rose to $567,000 from $249,000 between 2000 and 2005, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. It was the largest increase among the country's biggest cities.

“Think about how much equity and paper wealth has been created for these people over the last five years,” Moeder said. “So an 8 percent decrease is not a big deal.”
Nationwide, projects that the median sales price for an existing home will decline in 2007 by 3.6 percent, which would be the first decline for an entire year in home prices since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The report projected that 133 of the nation's 379 metropolitan areas would suffer price declines.
That is quite a contrast from the past five years when low mortgage rates pushed sales to five consecutive annual records, and prices in the hottest sales areas skyrocketed.
The forecast is included in a 195-page report, “Housing at the Tipping Point.”
Some analysts are worried that the slowdown could become so severe that it could drag the entire country into a recession, much like the bursting of the stock market bubble in 2000 led to the 2001 slump.

The 133 areas with slumping prices are concentrated in the states of California and Florida and the Northeast corridor from southern Maine to just south of Washington, D.C., as well as boom areas of Nevada and Arizona and some depressed sections of the Midwest, such as Detroit.
Of the areas with falling prices, 72 were forecast to hit their low point by the end of this year, with the rest seeing a trough for prices in 2007, 2008 or even as late as 2009.
But even in areas that have already hit a low point for prices, the rebound isn't expected to occur quickly.

“Prices are going to go down and stay down for a while. It will take at least a couple of years to work off the excesses of the last decade,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's and the principal author of the report.
The report described the current environment as a “correction” and not a “crash,” but it cautioned that there were downside risks that could make the slowdown more serious.
“We believe the housing downturn will weigh on the economic expansion, but will not break it . . . ” Zandi said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

A Quicky in Oceanside

Evidently there are some folks that still believe that they can turn a quick profit in this marketplace. Take the seller at 1049 BOULDER PLACE, OCEANSIDE, CA, he purchased this home on 7/21/06 for $663,222. On 8/26/06 he listed it on the market for $749,995. However, there are no takers at that price so the new asking price is $679,995-$729,995.
Well, who is the next greater fool? It won't be me, I'll tell you that.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Not so pleasant on Pleasant Vale Drive, Carlsbad

Listing _________Sq Ft ____Price _________Listed On

3419 Pleasant Vale___2705 ____$795,990 _________8/25/2006
3423 Pleasant Vale___2597 ____$745,990 _________6/26/2006
3424 Pleasant Vale___2705 ____$759,990 _________8/15/2006

3495 Pleasant Vale___2705 ____$710,000-$729,900 __9/26/2006

3419 Pleasant Vale Dr is currently owned by the builder.

3423 Pleasant Vale Dr is currently owned by the builder.

3424 Pleasant Vale Dr is currently owned by the builder.

3495 Pleasant Vale Dr was purchased on 3/9/06 for $754,698. Seven months later and the seller is in the proverbial hole.

I love to see a flipper take one for the team and screw the builder at his own game. The lower the home sells for the tougher it gets for the builder to unload his remaining homes as this will have a negative mark on the comps in the area.


Monday, October 02, 2006

Help! I've fallen and I can't get up


This beautiful 3419 sq ft home with 5 Br and 4 Ba was purchased on 4/14/2005 for $785,000. A little over 16 months later (8/7/06) the seller decided to sell the home for $860,000.

I bet this seller told all her friends how easy it was to make a quick profit. I can just imagine:

"Yeah Julie, remember that house I bought last year? Yeah that one. I just put it on the market for about a 100K more that I paid for it. Oh ya it should go fast, there are so many idiots out there that think we are running out of homes."

Well, well, well...........not so fast. 55 days after listing this home this seller has dropped the price $185K to $675K. Looks like someone's 100% financed ARM is causing fits. No worries and take heart, you will not be the only one to suffer this fate for many already are lined up.

Are you next? I'm watching.

Sunday, October 01, 2006

Infested with Flippers in Chula Vista


This home was originally purchased on 10/28/2004 for $435,141. It was then flipped for $500,000 less the 6 months later on 2/16/05. It was flipped again 5 months after that for $560,000 on 7/22/2005.

The latest flipper orginally listed this home for sale for $630,000 on 4/24/2006. 160 days later the flipper has lowered his price to $530,000-$550,000. There's no more milk left here.

This is a great example of how these flippers attack the fabric of society and create a cycle of doom for families and hard-working Americans. You must not be their next victim: DO NOT BUY A HOME until the median price is San Diego County gets down to $350K.

Are you with me?

Short Sale in San Marcos

554 VIA DEL CABALLO, 2358 sq ft (Belleza Tract) built in 2004

Purchase price: $585,000 9/28/2004
Listing price: $590,000 8/16/2006 reduced to $540,000

Here is the exerpt from the realtor:

"SHORT SALE! LAST APPRAISAL $590, 000.00 subject to lenders approval, Huge master bedroom. minutes from the heart of San Marcos and Restaurant Row, walkingdistant to Cal-State San Marcos home in great condition. BRING YOUR OFFERS. ALL OF THEM WILL BE CONSIDERED. "

The flipper got screwed. The lender got screwed. The neighbors get screwed and society gets screwed because of senseless greed while the builder is laughing all the way to the bank.

October Review: Bay Park, 92110

Homes for sale: 158 listings

The Best Value:

Living Area: 1702 Sq Ft, 3BR, 3BA
Listing price : $569,000 (2178 sq ft lot)

Sale History:
09/04/2001: $353,000
04/08/1996: $189,500

Recent Comparables:

The Worst Value:

Living Area: 150 Sq Ft, 3BR, 1BA (12500 sq ft lot)
Listing price : $925,000-$975,000

Sale History:
Not Available

Recent Comparables:


This area is really not known as a prime flip area. It has many older homes and very few homes built after 2000. This is a great location that is close to the beach and downtown. However, many homes in this area are old and in bad shape so in general I would tend to pay between $200-250 sq ft for an average home.

Historical Median Price:

Median price 2000: $325K
Median price 2001: $379K
Median price 2002: $435K
Median price 2003: $522K
Median price 2004: $650K
Median price 2005: $650K
Median price 2006: $660K

I can't tell you what to do with your hard earned money, but I sure would think twice about buying anything in this area until the median price gets back to $350K-400K.