Forclosures Surge

dqnews.com


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I don't think our friend from Rancho Bernado is paying attention......

Myopia inflicts Rancho Bernado Flipper

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I think this flipper is suffering from myopia (Lack of discernment or long-range perspective in thinking or planning). He acutally believes that his home appreciated from $1,092,595 in 12/2005 to $1, 649,000 15 months later.

First, you waaaaaaaaay overpaid for your house! We should get on you knees and start to pray that some sucker will give you what you paid for it. Next, the listing price is a insult to the buying public, you should be ashamed of yourself!

Potential $200K loss for downtown condo flipper

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Ouch!

San Diego company revises its formula

By Roger Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

February 15, 2007

DataQuick Information Systems, the San Diego company that collects information on home sales in nearly all markets across the country, has adjusted the way it computes its widely watched reports on median home prices.

The result will be revised calculations for housing prices and sales volume in all markets surveyed by DataQuick – including San Diego – going back to 1988, said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll.

Karevoll said the revisions should not greatly change previously reported price figures, which are closely followed by the real estate industry, as well as by homeowners, and are published in many newspapers. The changes will be less noticeable for prices that have been reported for individual ZIP codes.

Starting with January's DataQuick reports – released yesterday for Southern California – the new methodology will capture about 10 percent more transactions than previously reported.
The firm previously computed median prices for states, regions and counties based on a weighted average of medians first calculated for each ZIP code within the category.
Under the new system, the overall median for each geographic area will be calculated from all transactions within each group and not derived from a median price established for each ZIP code.

“For commercial uses we've been doing this methodology for three or four years,” Karevoll said. “What we'd like to do is get numbers put out in the public domain that are in sync with what we sell to banks.”

Going back to 1988, the change is relatively slight, with some areas a little higher than previously reported and others a little lower. Individual ZIP code prices remain unchanged unless additional transactions with known prices have been added since the initial reports.
In San Diego County, last year's overall median originally was reported at $490,000, down from $494,000 in 2005. The new calculations placed both figures at $500,000, meaning there was no change between the two years.

With the new methodology, last year still marked the first time since 1995 that there was not been a year-over-year increase in prices locally.

For single-family resale houses, which make up about half of all transactions, the original median reported $549,000 for 2005 and $554,000 for 2006. The revised numbers are $555,000 for both years.

The condominium resale medians in 2005 and 2006 originally were set at $392,000 and $390,000, respectively. In the new calculation only the 2005 figure changed, to $395,000.
The median for new homes – houses, condos and condo conversions – originally was set at $476,000 in 2005 and $444,000 in 2006. The revised figures were adjusted down to $473,5000 and $439,500, respectively.

Karevoll said there continues to be a gap in information reported at the ZIP code level.
Now the number of sales reported by the firm reflects all transactions, whether the price is known or not. The median price is necessarily based only on the properties for which there is a known price. The median is the midway point among all sales, with half above and half below that level. In a few cases, the location of the home also is not known by DataQuick, so the ZIP code of the mailing address for the property tax bill is assumed to be the site of the home.
If a transaction involves more than one home, Karevoll said each home will be counted separately. Transfers of homes in intrafamily transactions and apartment sales will continue to be excluded.

To illustrate one effect of the revision, the company had reported under the old system that housing sales in 2006 for San Diego County amounted to 42,122. Using the new method, the figure was revised to 44,580.

DataQuick says its sales information represents about 90 percent of the dollar volume of all real estate activity nationally and 95 percent of all activity in metropolitan areas like San Diego.




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Desperate times call for desperate measures. Looks like they may buy themselves a few more months before the year-over-year go negative. What a scam...................

Carlsbad owners feeling the heat

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I think its time to buy right? Wrong! With tighter lending standards California homeprices will come down in 2007 by at least 20%.

Rancho Bernardo homeowners on the ropes

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A few examples of Rancho Bernardo home owners who are below the curve on timing the real estate market (some as much as $230K). Some homes are actually listing under 2004 prices. I am sure these set of owners will not be the last to be on this prestigious list.

Carlsbad Foreclosure faces $120K+ loss

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Purchased in 2005, this owner's ARM exploded out of control, and the bank is left to clean up the mess.

The owner is partly to blame, but the lender should be audited by the government for extending bad loans to unqualified buyers, gov't should revoke its license. That is the only way these lenders will get a conscience.

San Marcos market deteriorating

I pick out a few examples reflecting how weak the San Marcos market has become. This is why I would not touch this market.

I remember homes in this area would not last a week on the marker, oh how times have changed. Areas that reeped the benefits of the housing boom like San Marcos, Chula Vista, Carlsbad etc will be the front runners in foreclosures, short sales etc.

Housing slump here to stay

By Lauren Baier Kim, Wall Street Journal


New data released by the Census Bureau shows that the vacancy rate of homes for sale, at 2.7%, or 2.1 million vacant homes, is at its highest level since the bureau began tracking it 40 years ago, according to a Wall Street Journal Online article. These properties, many of which are likely held by investors, could bring housing values down further as prices are slashed to attract buyers, WSJ Online says. Meanwhile, CNNMoney.com reports that figures released by Case Shiller Weiss indicate that nearly every major housing market in the U.S. has seen price declines in November. Showing the largest year-over-year price declines that month were Boston, with a 5% dip, and Detroit, with a 4.5% drop, CNNMoney says. The biggest year-over-year price increases were in Seattle (13%), Portland (11.6%) and Miami (7.4%), according to the article, which includes a chart summarizing market trends for 20 U.S. cities.

Carlsbad owner out at least $130K

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Six-figure loses are becoming a norm in prestigous Carlsbad. This owner purchased a falling knife and unfortunately the pit is bottomless. In my opinion this home will be $550K by years end.

California flipping sees a slight downturn

The New York Times
House flipping in California last year declined to its lowest level since 2003 as speculators retreated from a market in which sales plunged and prices flattened, a market tracker said recently.

Properties owned for six months or less accounted for just 3.2 percent of resales last year, down from 4.2 percent in 2005 and 3.6 percent in 2004, according to the San Juan Capistrano-based HomeSmartReports.com.

Overall, flippers sold the properties for a median $45,000 more than they paid, somewhat lower than $52,000 in 2005. If there were improvement costs, profit would be correspondingly lower.
In 2003, when HomeSmart-Reports.com began tracking flipping, the practice of buying and then quickly selling a property, it accounted for 2.4 percent of resales.

The company tracked public records and considered a property flipped if it was owned for six months or less.

In Los Angeles County, flipping accounted for 3.6 percent of sales last year, versus 4.4 percent in 2005.

This level of activity is not surprising because sales last year were well under the 2005 level. Prices, though, have not plunged because the economy is still growing, albeit at a modest pace.
“What’s happened now is the flipping activity is just reflective of today’s real estate climate,” said Steve Morgan, the company’s senior vice president.

“Investors, if they can, have adopted a buy-and-hold strategy until prices come back up.”
And if prices don’t start rising some owners will be forced to sell and cut their losses, he said.
Flipping was highest in Kern (4.7 percent) and Riverside (4.3 percent) counties last year, and lowest in Napa County (1.9 percent) and in rural Sierra foothill counties (2 percent).

Chula Vista owner facing over $130K loss

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I don't understand how a person purchasing a home in 1) August 2005 2) in Chula Vista 3) for $900K and 4) ~$350 per month in fees, thought a profit could be made.

Thats not exactly a recipe that calls out to me. I don't even think he would have made a profit if the home was in La Jolla.

The builders were making a killing, I remember a house like this in 2000 would cost about $300K. Amazing.........

Rancho Bernardo home under 2005 price

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Owner is looking at a minimum $90K loss here. Purchased almost 2 years ago for $589K this home has depreciated at least 10% in 2 years and in my opinion still has a way to go. The current assessments and mello-roos totals $330 a month. If purchased at $539K with 20% down and a 30 year conventional loan (@6%) the monthly mortgage comes out to about $2,600. If you add property taxes @ 1.1% thats another $500 per month.

The bottomline is that you will purchase a 1600 sq ft home in congested Rancho Bernardo for a monthly payment of about $3,500 a month. If you add utilities, insurance and other expenses you are looking at $4,000 a month.

I'm sure people are waiting in line for this opportunity.

Don't forget to feed the kids.....

Scripps Ranch home under 2005 price

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Originally listed for $751K this owner, like other owners now-a-days, has come to reality that his home is not worth what he paid for it, thus the new listing price. On the market now for a 113 days, and with a flood of new listings after the holidays, his situation is grim. Already looking at a $80K loss, he needs to cut the price at least another $50-100K or in a blink of an eye the $80K loss can potentially be over $200K.

With todays market, I personally would have a very difficult time offering more than $500K. But that is only my opinion, what do I know anyway.

California Foreclosure Activity Jumps Again

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We are looking a triple-digit increases in almost every county in California. This is going to be a very ugly ride down this slope, I am buying canned food and water already!

Carlsbad Owner suffers $120K loss from 2005 purchase

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Carlsbad home was purchased in feb 2005, at the current listing price it represents a 11% decline. 2004 and 2005 purchasers will suffer the most in this market.

Adjustable rates climbing...death to corrupt lenders

Copyright © 2007 Mortgage-X.com

Source: www.mortgage-x.com

Reprinted with permission

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As Adjustable Rates keep moving up, the window for sleezy lenders to loan absurd loans to unquailfied individuals will close rendering the colapse of the San Diego real estate market. Currently the popular ARMs range from 4.5% to 5.4%, once we reach 6.5-7.5% we will see a saturated market, no quailfied buyers and desperate sellers. Hold on folks this should be quite a ride.

$150K loss in months for Spring Valley flipper

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Purchased for about $800K in 5/2006 this flipper faces a minimum of a $150K loss. We warned you not to buy, and you did not listen.

Fixer Upper in Point Loma

Comments: Only $650K and is subject to short sale. Someone is up the creek on this one.

Over $210K Loss for Lender in Oceanside!!!

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Lender took a huge hit here. Over $210K loss in 18 months is well deserved for lending money to fools who can't afford $800K home in the first place.