Saturday, February 17, 2007

Rancho Bernardo homeowners on the ropes


(Click to enlarge)



Remarks:


A few examples of Rancho Bernardo home owners who are below the curve on timing the real estate market (some as much as $230K). Some homes are actually listing under 2004 prices. I am sure these set of owners will not be the last to be on this prestigious list.

Monday, February 12, 2007

Carlsbad Foreclosure faces $120K+ loss

Listing Info:




Previous Sales Info:




Remarks:
Purchased in 2005, this owner's ARM exploded out of control, and the bank is left to clean up the mess.
The owner is partly to blame, but the lender should be audited by the government for extending bad loans to unqualified buyers, gov't should revoke its license. That is the only way these lenders will get a conscience.

Saturday, February 10, 2007

San Marcos market deteriorating


I pick out a few examples reflecting how weak the San Marcos market has become. This is why I would not touch this market.


I remember homes in this area would not last a week on the marker, oh how times have changed. Areas that reeped the benefits of the housing boom like San Marcos, Chula Vista, Carlsbad etc will be the front runners in foreclosures, short sales etc.


Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Housing slump here to stay

By Lauren Baier Kim, Wall Street Journal


New data released by the Census Bureau shows that the vacancy rate of homes for sale, at 2.7%, or 2.1 million vacant homes, is at its highest level since the bureau began tracking it 40 years ago, according to a Wall Street Journal Online article. These properties, many of which are likely held by investors, could bring housing values down further as prices are slashed to attract buyers, WSJ Online says. Meanwhile, CNNMoney.com reports that figures released by Case Shiller Weiss indicate that nearly every major housing market in the U.S. has seen price declines in November. Showing the largest year-over-year price declines that month were Boston, with a 5% dip, and Detroit, with a 4.5% drop, CNNMoney says. The biggest year-over-year price increases were in Seattle (13%), Portland (11.6%) and Miami (7.4%), according to the article, which includes a chart summarizing market trends for 20 U.S. cities.

Carlsbad owner out at least $130K

Listing Information:








Previous Sale Information:




Remarks:
Six-figure loses are becoming a norm in prestigous Carlsbad. This owner purchased a falling knife and unfortunately the pit is bottomless. In my opinion this home will be $550K by years end.


Thursday, February 01, 2007

California flipping sees a slight downturn

The New York Times
House flipping in California last year declined to its lowest level since 2003 as speculators retreated from a market in which sales plunged and prices flattened, a market tracker said recently.

Properties owned for six months or less accounted for just 3.2 percent of resales last year, down from 4.2 percent in 2005 and 3.6 percent in 2004, according to the San Juan Capistrano-based HomeSmartReports.com.

Overall, flippers sold the properties for a median $45,000 more than they paid, somewhat lower than $52,000 in 2005. If there were improvement costs, profit would be correspondingly lower.
In 2003, when HomeSmart-Reports.com began tracking flipping, the practice of buying and then quickly selling a property, it accounted for 2.4 percent of resales.

The company tracked public records and considered a property flipped if it was owned for six months or less.

In Los Angeles County, flipping accounted for 3.6 percent of sales last year, versus 4.4 percent in 2005.

This level of activity is not surprising because sales last year were well under the 2005 level. Prices, though, have not plunged because the economy is still growing, albeit at a modest pace.
“What’s happened now is the flipping activity is just reflective of today’s real estate climate,” said Steve Morgan, the company’s senior vice president.

“Investors, if they can, have adopted a buy-and-hold strategy until prices come back up.”
And if prices don’t start rising some owners will be forced to sell and cut their losses, he said.
Flipping was highest in Kern (4.7 percent) and Riverside (4.3 percent) counties last year, and lowest in Napa County (1.9 percent) and in rural Sierra foothill counties (2 percent).

Chula Vista owner facing over $130K loss

Listing Information (click to enlarge):





Previous Sale Info:



Comments:
I don't understand how a person purchasing a home in 1) August 2005 2) in Chula Vista 3) for $900K and 4) ~$350 per month in fees, thought a profit could be made.
Thats not exactly a recipe that calls out to me. I don't even think he would have made a profit if the home was in La Jolla.
The builders were making a killing, I remember a house like this in 2000 would cost about $300K. Amazing.........

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Rancho Bernardo home under 2005 price

Listing Details: (click to enlarge)


Previous Sale Details:


Comments:
Owner is looking at a minimum $90K loss here. Purchased almost 2 years ago for $589K this home has depreciated at least 10% in 2 years and in my opinion still has a way to go. The current assessments and mello-roos totals $330 a month. If purchased at $539K with 20% down and a 30 year conventional loan (@6%) the monthly mortgage comes out to about $2,600. If you add property taxes @ 1.1% thats another $500 per month.
The bottomline is that you will purchase a 1600 sq ft home in congested Rancho Bernardo for a monthly payment of about $3,500 a month. If you add utilities, insurance and other expenses you are looking at $4,000 a month.
I'm sure people are waiting in line for this opportunity.
Don't forget to feed the kids.....


Monday, January 29, 2007

Scripps Ranch home under 2005 price



Listing Details (click to enlarge):









Previous Sale:



Comments:
Originally listed for $751K this owner, like other owners now-a-days, has come to reality that his home is not worth what he paid for it, thus the new listing price. On the market now for a 113 days, and with a flood of new listings after the holidays, his situation is grim. Already looking at a $80K loss, he needs to cut the price at least another $50-100K or in a blink of an eye the $80K loss can potentially be over $200K.
With todays market, I personally would have a very difficult time offering more than $500K. But that is only my opinion, what do I know anyway.


California Foreclosure Activity Jumps Again

Click on link above or on picture to enlarge




Comments:
We are looking a triple-digit increases in almost every county in California. This is going to be a very ugly ride down this slope, I am buying canned food and water already!

Carlsbad Owner suffers $120K loss from 2005 purchase



Listing Information (click to enlarge):







Sales History:




Comments:
Carlsbad home was purchased in feb 2005, at the current listing price it represents a 11% decline. 2004 and 2005 purchasers will suffer the most in this market.



Sunday, January 28, 2007

Adjustable rates climbing...death to corrupt lenders

Copyright © 2007 Mortgage-X.com
Reprinted with permission

Comments:

As Adjustable Rates keep moving up, the window for sleezy lenders to loan absurd loans to unquailfied individuals will close rendering the colapse of the San Diego real estate market. Currently the popular ARMs range from 4.5% to 5.4%, once we reach 6.5-7.5% we will see a saturated market, no quailfied buyers and desperate sellers. Hold on folks this should be quite a ride.

$150K loss in months for Spring Valley flipper


Listing Information: (click to enlarge)







Sales Infromation: (click to enlarge)




Comments:
Purchased for about $800K in 5/2006 this flipper faces a minimum of a $150K loss. We warned you not to buy, and you did not listen.

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Fixer Upper in Point Loma












Comments: Only $650K and is subject to short sale. Someone is up the creek on this one.


Over $210K Loss for Lender in Oceanside!!!

Listing Details:



(click to enlarge)

Previous Sale Details:


Comments

Lender took a huge hit here. Over $210K loss in 18 months is well deserved for lending money to fools who can't afford $800K home in the first place.

Minimum $165K loss for San Marcos Flipper

Listing Details:




Previous Sale Details:


Comments:
Flipper original asking price was $860K and now is $675K. $165K (if he gets a full offer) loss in 20 months shows how stagnant the San Diego Real Estate market has become. I forecast a 20% decline by the end of the year.


Tuesday, January 02, 2007

More Foreclosures in San Marcos - Over $190K Loss

Listing Details: (click on image to zoom)








Sales Details:

Summary:
Just got back from San Diego over the Holidays and one thing is for sure, people are in a panic mode. The foreclosure rate has more than tripled from last year and there are no signs of the pace slowing. This home has never been lived in yet the owner clearly purchased it with flipping on his mind. This will not work anymore so he is poised to take a -$190K hair cut!